MUST HIT BY FORMULA GUIDES
(1) Figure out whether the MHB progressive can hit anywhere or if it is weighted to hit at the top.
It’s super important to know this because it will help you determine the average hit point to use in your calculation. Ainsworth machines hit at a random point that is pre-determined when the progressive is reset. So if you find an Ainsworth MHB $10k at $9,700, then you would assume it will hit at $9,850 on average (half the time it will hit earlier and half the time it will hit later). When you are using the midpoint like this, you need to play enough sessions to even out the times when the progressive hits late versus when it hits early. So it if goes all the way to $9,999.99, you could take a gigantic loss. This is why you need a huge bankroll to chase large progressives like these.
AGS machines (like River Dragons) usually are weighted to hit near the top (although I do know of an AGS game that can hit anywhere, so that is not always the case). So a $5k River Dragons will hit between $4,990 and $5,000, with $4,995 being the average. The IGT Classic Hits series nearly always hit at the very, very top (the $200 MHB will hit at exactly $200).
If you aren’t sure when the progressive usually hits, then it is best to assume that the MHB will run to the very top. But keep in mind that it might be hard to actually find plays if you are overly conservative like this.
(2) Determine the meter (how fast the progressive increments).
The meter is the amount of coin-in it takes to increment the progressive by $0.01. It can also be written as a percentage. So if it takes $1 to increment the progressive by $0.01, then it will have a meter of 1%. It will take $100 of coin-in to increment the meter by $1.
Be very careful when counting spins to determine the meter, especially on large progressives. Sometimes it will take multiple spins to increment the meter at all and it can be hard to tell where in the cycle you began. Say it takes 10 spins of $1 to increment the progressive by $0.01. If you began on spin 9 of 10 (you’d have no way of knowing this) and only did one spin, then you might assume it takes just one spin to increment by $0.01 instead of 10. So it is crucial that you get this number correct.
(3) Determine how much coin-in will be required to trigger the progressive based on the hit point you determined in step #1 above.
Say a MHB $500 is at $490. You know that it can hit anywhere (it’s not weighted to hit at the top). You would determine $495 as the average hit point. Therefore, you would need to increment the progressive by $5. If the meter is 0.5% ($2 increments it by $0.01 or $200 increments it by $1), then it would require $1,000 of coin-in.
(4) Determine the bleed rate of the base game (you’ll likely have to guess this).
The base game won’t take all of the money you put in. You can expect to get a percentage of that back. This is the main unknown—it will determine how conservative or how aggressive you want to be.
The payback of the base game will usually be between 80% and 90%. The inverse of this is called the bleed rate (sometimes referred to as the drop or hold). So a base game payback of 80% would mean a bleed rate of 20%.
The return of the base game isn’t the same as the RTP because the RTP includes the progressives. We are trying to determine how much of every dollar the base game will eat up while we chase the progressive. Usually the progressives contribute several percentage points to the RTP, but this can vary greatly depending on the game. A typical range is 1% to 6%. It can sometimes be much higher if the game features multiple progressives or if the progressives trigger quickly.
Many APs will use 20% as a conservative number for the bleed rate of the base game, so this is the number we will use in our example.
(5) Use the numbers from above to determine the cost to trigger the progressive, which will tell you your profit.
Here is the formula again:
jackpot - cost to trigger it = profit
So using the numbers from the steps above, we get the following (when starting at $490 with a meter of 0.5%):
$495 (average hit point) - $200 ($1,000 coin-in to increment meter $5 x 0.20 bleed rate) = $295 profit.
$500 (if MHB goes all the way to the top) - $400 ($2,000 coin-in to increment meter $10 x 0.20 bleed rate) = $100 profit.
It’s super important to know this because it will help you determine the average hit point to use in your calculation. Ainsworth machines hit at a random point that is pre-determined when the progressive is reset. So if you find an Ainsworth MHB $10k at $9,700, then you would assume it will hit at $9,850 on average (half the time it will hit earlier and half the time it will hit later). When you are using the midpoint like this, you need to play enough sessions to even out the times when the progressive hits late versus when it hits early. So it if goes all the way to $9,999.99, you could take a gigantic loss. This is why you need a huge bankroll to chase large progressives like these.
AGS machines (like River Dragons) usually are weighted to hit near the top (although I do know of an AGS game that can hit anywhere, so that is not always the case). So a $5k River Dragons will hit between $4,990 and $5,000, with $4,995 being the average. The IGT Classic Hits series nearly always hit at the very, very top (the $200 MHB will hit at exactly $200).
If you aren’t sure when the progressive usually hits, then it is best to assume that the MHB will run to the very top. But keep in mind that it might be hard to actually find plays if you are overly conservative like this.
(2) Determine the meter (how fast the progressive increments).
The meter is the amount of coin-in it takes to increment the progressive by $0.01. It can also be written as a percentage. So if it takes $1 to increment the progressive by $0.01, then it will have a meter of 1%. It will take $100 of coin-in to increment the meter by $1.
Be very careful when counting spins to determine the meter, especially on large progressives. Sometimes it will take multiple spins to increment the meter at all and it can be hard to tell where in the cycle you began. Say it takes 10 spins of $1 to increment the progressive by $0.01. If you began on spin 9 of 10 (you’d have no way of knowing this) and only did one spin, then you might assume it takes just one spin to increment by $0.01 instead of 10. So it is crucial that you get this number correct.
(3) Determine how much coin-in will be required to trigger the progressive based on the hit point you determined in step #1 above.
Say a MHB $500 is at $490. You know that it can hit anywhere (it’s not weighted to hit at the top). You would determine $495 as the average hit point. Therefore, you would need to increment the progressive by $5. If the meter is 0.5% ($2 increments it by $0.01 or $200 increments it by $1), then it would require $1,000 of coin-in.
(4) Determine the bleed rate of the base game (you’ll likely have to guess this).
The base game won’t take all of the money you put in. You can expect to get a percentage of that back. This is the main unknown—it will determine how conservative or how aggressive you want to be.
The payback of the base game will usually be between 80% and 90%. The inverse of this is called the bleed rate (sometimes referred to as the drop or hold). So a base game payback of 80% would mean a bleed rate of 20%.
The return of the base game isn’t the same as the RTP because the RTP includes the progressives. We are trying to determine how much of every dollar the base game will eat up while we chase the progressive. Usually the progressives contribute several percentage points to the RTP, but this can vary greatly depending on the game. A typical range is 1% to 6%. It can sometimes be much higher if the game features multiple progressives or if the progressives trigger quickly.
Many APs will use 20% as a conservative number for the bleed rate of the base game, so this is the number we will use in our example.
(5) Use the numbers from above to determine the cost to trigger the progressive, which will tell you your profit.
Here is the formula again:
jackpot - cost to trigger it = profit
So using the numbers from the steps above, we get the following (when starting at $490 with a meter of 0.5%):
$495 (average hit point) - $200 ($1,000 coin-in to increment meter $5 x 0.20 bleed rate) = $295 profit.
$500 (if MHB goes all the way to the top) - $400 ($2,000 coin-in to increment meter $10 x 0.20 bleed rate) = $100 profit.